V8 Predicts

Expected value

Expected value is the average result a bet would produce if it were repeated many times at the same price.

In plain English

It combines how often something happens with what you are paid when it does. A bet can be very likely to lose and still be worth making, if the payout when it wins is large enough relative to that chance.

Example

A 25 percent chance paid at +400 breaks even over time. Paid at +450 it is profitable in the long run, despite losing three times out of four.

Why it matters

It reframes a single result as one sample rather than a verdict, which is the mental shift that separates process from outcome.

How V8 uses this term

V8 publishes aggregate realised performance. It does not publish expected-value figures for individual events.

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